Tips for Handicapping Injuries in Football

One of the most unpredictable events in football which can turn the tide for an entire season is when a player gets injured.  Some players are injury-prone, but it can happen to anyone, and it is pretty much a given that every team is going to have to deal with injuries at some point or other during the course of the season.  How serious those injuries are and who they happen to are both factors that can magnify the effect of the injury. 

When a player is injured, ask yourself the following:

• How many games will he be missing?  If the player is expected to be out for just a game or two, the adjustments the team will have to make to compensate will be minimal.  But if he will be out for a long time, the impact will be twofold.  Firstly, his talents will be unavailable, which obviously can be detrimental.  Secondly, the team is forced to rearrange to make up for the gap, and this can result in all kinds of strategic flaws and failures. 

• Who is replacing him?  If the player replacing him can perform at a similar level, the impact of the injury will not be nearly so great as it would were the team at a loss.  Plus, if the replacement player has a similar style, the team may not need to make as many changes to their strategy.

• Was the injured player a key player?  Crucial players not only bring great athletic prowess to the field, but may also act as team leaders, pulling everyone together and bolstering their spirits.  When players like these are lost to injury, team play and morale can suffer.  Remember that whether a player is considered “key” is not just determined by that player’s position, but also by the team’s strategy.  One team may value a striker or goalkeeper far more than another. 

• How has the team handled player injuries in the past, especially in the same position, or with the same player?  Ironically, sometimes if the player is injury-prone and the team has had to deal with before, they may adjust better going forward the next time it happens.  If the team has historically weathered injuries well, they may pull through just fine.  If they have historically struggled with injuries and have done a poor job compensating for players who are out, they may be losing a substantial advantage on the field this time around as well.

The public tends to take an alarmist stance toward injuries, so that is something else to keep in mind when it happens.  While the betting public panics, you can keep your head on straight and do a serious analysis of what is going on and what the likely impact will actually be.  What the public believes will move the betting lines.  But what they believe doesn’t necessarily reflect on reality.  Do your analysis carefully, and you will be able to make sense of it all and make smart betting decisions.