Betting on NFL Futures

The preseason for American NFL football is an exciting time where fans and punters get a glimpse at teams in action and get to make predictions about how players and teams will fare in the upcoming season.  That makes this the perfect time to plan your NFL futures bets. 

If you are not familiar with a futures bet, it is a wager you place on the outcome of the entire season.  You place it in advance, so it can be a very tough bet to win.  If you want to predict who will win the NFL Super Bowl, you will have to take a number of factors into account.  Here are some important ones to consider:

• The posted odds.  These are typically posted right after the draft, so you can look at them now.  This tells you where the experts are standing.  Of course, if they heavily favour a certain team, you are not going to get a great value because the payout will be too small.

• Draft choices and changes.  Hopefully you were following the draft.  If not, catch up on it now.  Who were the top draft picks this year?  Who got them?  Which teams did not get their first choices, and which ones did?  How will those players fit into their new teams?  What about free agent signings?  Also consider what has remained the same.  Which starters are returning this year?  Look for gaps and weaknesses in a team’s starters, as well as areas where they have improved.  Consider not only each player individually, but how the players will work together cohesively as a whole.

• Coaching changes.  Changes at the management level can have sweeping ramifications for a team.  Sometimes all it takes to pull together an underperforming team is a switch in coaching.  The converse can happen too—a team with great players can lose cohesion, focus, and strategic value with poor coaching.

• Injuries.  It’s quite common for players to be injured during training camps and preseason games.  If a team is starting out with a key player injured (or several), that is going to have a very adverse effect on them right from the beginning.  Pay particular attention to injured starters.

• Locker room and off-field factors.  While many pro players are focused on the game, there are many distractions off the field as well.  Players with off-field problems and squabbles in the locker room can have a negative effect on the whole team.

It takes some practice to learn how to balance all of these factors in your analysis of NFL teams.  With practice, however, you can become quite good at it.  Whether you find a great value on a futures bet or not, the analysis you conduct can help you throughout the season for placing other wagers on NFL teams and players.  NFL football is an exciting sport, so dive in, have fun, and good luck on a profitable season!