Handicapping Super Bowl 50, Part 3: Why Might the Broncos Win?

We’re less than a couple of days away now from Super Bowl 50.  With the game being broadcast to 230 countries, this is the biggest year ever for NFL around the world—including in the UK.

Thinking of betting on the Super Bowl?  This year the Denver Broncos will be playing against the Carolina Panthers.  As I discussed in Handicapping Super Bowl 50 Part 2 of this series, the Panthers are favoured to win against the Broncos by 4 points.  Even though they are the heavy favourite (over eighty percent of the betting public is wagering on them), that is not a very big point lead, so the game should be close. 

This may mean the Broncos have a better chance than they are being given.  This would be well in line with what has gone on during the rest of the season.  Most people believed they would lose against the Patriots last week as well.  That was a very tight game, but they did pull through in the end.

Here are some reasons why the Broncos may have a chance to win:

• The Broncos have a tendency to make that extra push when needed.  If a game is close and there is a chance it could easily swing either way, the Broncos will go all the way—especially with their defence—to ensure that it swings in their favour.  This was certainly not the case back in 2013 when they were humiliated by the Seattle Seahawks.  This may well be a case where success is built on the hard-learned lessons of failure. 

• The Broncos have two key players who are likely playing their final seasons—quarterback Peyton Manning and linebacker DeMarcus Ware.  Both players are leaders who are beloved by their teammates, which is yet another reason why the Broncos are likely to give an extra push in Sunday’s game. 

• Between the two teams, the Broncos have far more experience with the Super Bowl (seven past appearances, compared to the Panthers’ one appearance) and are less likely to get distracted by all the hype and pressure.  They also have five consecutive division titles under their belts.  They’ve gone up against tough teams like the Patriots and emerged victorious.  Even though there have been some injuries and plenty of fatigue, it isn’t showing.  This team has been tested through trial by fire and has emerged shining.

So is it a given that the Panthers are going to win the Super Bowl?  Despite the opinion of the general public, maybe not.  There are plenty of reasons why the Broncos may emerge the victors, even though they are the underdogs.  So you may not want to count them out.  Go back over the seasons for both teams (this season and the past several years), and carefully evaluate all the factors affecting both teams.  Draw your own conclusions.  In my next installment,  Handicapping Super Bowl 50  Part 4, I will give you some helpful statistics which may help you to make sense of the big picture.