Challenges Predicting NFL at the Start of the Season

We’re almost at the end of another season of NFL football.  If you have been following along through the season, you may already have a number of predictions for this year’s teams and players.  Whether that is true or you are only just now starting to handicap NFL football, it is smart to remind yourself that making solid predictions early on in the season is very difficult.  Why?

• Personnel changes in NFL football can create uncertainty.  Every NFL team trades, hires, and fires during the off-season.  Many teams do so extensively, and may have major personnel changes since last year.  This may include new players and even new managers and coaches.  These staff changes create unpredictability from many angles. 

• Strategy changes.  Teams not only revise their rosters, but also revise their strategies heading into a new season.  For some teams, these adjustments may be minor.  For others, they can be a complete transformation.  New strategies can improve play, but adjusting to them is never easy, and may result in all kinds of chaos in the meantime.

• Injuries.  Training injuries during the NFL offseason are really common.  Teams take care to prevent injuries to their starters, but that does not guarantee that key players will not be injured.  If a team starts without the starters they planned on, their performance is almost certainly going to take a huge hit.  That does not mean later down the line they will not make up for it when they get those key players back in place.

• Intangible factors.  There are a number of intangible factors that play out on the field.  Even if a team has great chemistry, fine-tuning that chemistry can take time.  It takes a few games for players to get used to being out on the field together and developing an intuitive synergy.  There is also a huge amount of pressure and anticipation at the start of the NFL season, which will cause players to be nervous and erratic.  These same players may have a much easier time getting in the zone later in the season.

At the start of the season, do not be surprised if you lose some of your NFL bets.  Take meticulous notes and revise your predictions accordingly as the season progresses.  Know however that a lot of the chaos you see at the start of the season may not be indicative of anything meaningful; many of the above issues will be corrected over time.  Others will not.  Learning to tell meaningful data from temporary flukes and glitches is one of your biggest challenges as a handicapper!  Read here a few tips on how to bet on NFL so that you are successful throughout the season.