Tips for Betting on Futures

If you are not already familiar with a futures bet or outright bet, it is a type of wager you make far in advance of an event.  Often it means predicting the outcome of a season at the start of the season or before the season even begins.  For example, an NFL bet would entail guessing who will win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. An a UEFA Champions League bet would be on who will lift the precious trophy. You can base your guess off of the posted odds or your own analysis, or some combination of the two. 

What should you know about betting on futures?  For starters, placing future bets can be challenging.  While you may be able to make predictions about a team’s performance based on preseason analysis, there are so many random events that you cannot predict, and so much time for those events to unfold in.  You never know when a key player will get injured, or when a mid-season change in staff throws everyone on a team through a loop.  You don’t know if weather will cost a team a game, or if a miraculous fluke will change a team’s fortunes for the rest of the season. 

Something else that is important to know going into wagering on outright bets is that it isn’t always worth the money or effort.  For example, if a team is heavily favoured to win, the payout on the futures bet is going to be minuscule.  In fact, it may even be substantially smaller than the amount you are risking!  Who would want to put down £100 to win £10? 

This is just bad betting logic, and really irresponsible money management.  Yet wagers like these are offered on years when a team has a sterling track record and nobody doubts that they will emerge as champions.  You have the potential to win almost nothing, but if there is some bizarre fluke that costs the would-be champions their title, you lose a lot of money.

When should you make a futures bet?  It is a tough call, but it may be worth it if you can spot a good value.  This often means that you will be rooting for the underdog, but one you feel confident in.  You could get a great value for example if you spotted amazing potential in a team that nobody else is paying attention to.  If you bet on them to win the season and they became a Cinderella story, reaching the top against all expectations but yours, you can imagine that you could win quite a hefty sum of money.

Most seasons, you probably will not be placing profitable futures bets.  It is seldom that factors align so that you can make a strong prediction which isn’t already being made by everybody else.  If you do spot one of those golden opportunities, by all means, go for it.  If you do not though, it is usually best to focus on other types of bets which are more likely to pay off.