Evaluating New Golfers in a Tour

It is a common mistake for sports bettors to ignore new golfers who are joining a tour for the first time—or who are coming back to a tour after a long time away.  Sometimes these players are among the strongest in the tour, especially in the beginning when other veteran golfers may be reserving their energy and focus for later.  How can you evaluate a new golfer to determine his likely value?

• Where did he play before?  Not all tours are equally challenging.  The European Tour is less challenging than the PGA Tour, for example.  If a player has moved from the European Tour to the PGA Tour, it may be a tough transition.  If on the other hand a player has gone from the PGA Tour to the European Tour, his transition could be very easy.  On the other hand, if he has done it because he is struggling with the PGA Tour and needs something easier, he may still not perform all that strongly, even on an easier tour.

• Has the player ever played on the tour before?  It may be a golfer’s first time on a given tour as a regular, but that does not mean he has no experience.  He may be a PGA regular for the first time, but may have played in individual PGA events in the past.  The more experience he has, the better he is likely to play. 

• What do you know about the golfer’s individual play style?  It can be hard to find this information, depending on the player’s history, but if you do your homework, you might be able to pick up valuable information.  You should also try to figure out if his recent form is strong. 

• What context is the player coming into?  Is the field strong or weak?  In a weak field, a new golfer will have an easier time getting a strong start.  Where will he be playing?  Will the course suit his play style?  How much pressure is he under?  Is the press talking about him, or ignoring him?  What is his personality?  How will he hold up to pressure from the press?  If he is being hyped up, why?  If he is being ignored, is there a foundation for it or is he simply being overlooked?

There will be times when you can spot a strong new player who is being ignored by the press and the betting public.  This player is a total dark horse, but he may actually be the best player to wager on at the start of the season.  If you put your money on someone like this when no one else does, you could reap some incredible profits when he goes on to do really well.  Just keep in mind that even if a new player gets a strong start, he could face stiffer competition later on in the season when the veteran players begin taking the tour more seriously.