Analysing Your Performance through Statistics

How do you analyse the wagers you have taken after the fact?  There are a couple of great tools you should have on your side when you do.  The first is a betting journal, where you keep a detailed record about your wagering experience.  The second is a betting spreadsheet.  A spreadsheet is a streamlined version of your journal, and you can cross-reference it easily to your journal notes.

The two main advantages of a spreadsheet are these:

• A spreadsheet is easy to read at a glance.  Patterns stand out, especially if you are colour-coding your results.

• With a spreadsheet, you can run calculations.

If you are using a spreadsheet on your computer using a program like Excel, it can do all the math for you automatically and update your calculations as you go.  This allows you to track important statistics for your betting performance. 

Which statistics should you track, and what do they tell you?

• Win percentage over time:  This statistic is one of the most important, and it is the only one other than net profit that a lot of newbies track.  What should you aim for?  Around 55-57% is realistic.  If you are anywhere in that range, be happy with that aspect of your performance. 

• Win/loss ratio:  This is another way of framing your win percentage.  You may find it helps to lend you perspective. 

• Average win and loss sizes:  It is important to remember you can still lose money in your account even with a strong win percentage if your average loss is way bigger than your average win!  These statistics will help to track whether this might be the case.  If you were missing this     information and losing money with a high win percentage, you might wonder what is going on.

• Number of wins and losses:  If you are taking very few bets, your high win percentage still may result in a relatively low net profit.  This statistic helps you to fine-tune your system and experiment.  You might find that even with a slightly lower win percentage, you come out more profitable if you are placing more wagers.

• Net profit:  This is a simple measure of how much money you actually are making with your wins. 

• Adjusted net profit:  It is a wise idea to calculate an adjusted net profit which takes any fees and spreads you are paying into account.  This gives you a more realistic idea of how you are doing. 

• SolQ:  This is a statistic that was actually developed by a professional Forex trader named Rob Booker.  Take your net profit and divide it by your largest loss.  This statistic lets you know how many of those huge losses you could sustain in a row before you lose everything.  This is a measure of how resilient you are as a punter.

As you can see, there is no one statistic which is “most” important.  Each statistic must be contextually analysed in relation to the rest in order to get a complete portrait of your account and your performance.  Only when you have that full picture you are able to tweak your system to improve your true profitability over time.